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SNF Market Intelligence April 25, 2026
SeniorIndex  |  State Market Intelligence Report  |  Institutional Grade Intelligence
State Market Intelligence Report
Sample State
1,177 facilities • 133,557 beds • Report ID: SMR-XX-202604
Data vintage
Staffing (PBJ)Q3 2025 (PBJ)
Health inspectionsthrough Apr 2026
Federal penaltiesthrough Apr 2026
Quality measuresthrough Apr 2026
Ownership recordsthrough Apr 2026
Fire safetythrough Apr 2026
Facility financialsFY2024 HCRIS
Local demographics2023 ACS 5-year estimates
Each layer refreshed at the fastest cadence CMS publishes. PBJ staffing is released quarterly approximately 45 days after each collection period; deficiencies, penalties, and ownership records update continuously as agencies post them.
1 Executive Summary
Sample State nursing home market overview • 2025-Q3 data
1,177
Nursing Facilities
133,557
Certified Beds
89.4%
With Compliance Gaps
81.3
Avg Stability Score
Sample State has 1,177 Medicare-certified nursing facilities with 133,557 certified beds. As of 2025-Q3, 89.4% of facilities have at least one compliance gap heading into the industry staffing benchmarks. The state’s average staffing stability score is 81.3 out of 100. There are 36 Special Focus Facilities and 2,213 immediate jeopardy citations recorded in the past three years.
2 Compliance Landscape
Facility readiness against industry staffing benchmarks
Compliant
123
10.6% of facilities meet all 3 thresholds
At Risk
279
24.1% missing 1 threshold
Non-Compliant + Critical
758
65.3% failing 2+ thresholds
Compliance Trend — XX vs National (11 Quarters)
Compliance readiness is tracked quarterly using CMS Payroll-Based Journal data against three industry staffing benchmarks: 3.48 total nursing HPRD, 0.55 RN HPRD, and 24/7 registered nurse presence. Facilities meeting all three are “Compliant.” Those meeting two are “At Risk.” The chart above shows Sample State’s compliance trajectory compared to the national average.
3 Payer Mix Intelligence
Revenue composition • State vs national benchmarks
State vs National Payer Mix
Medicare
8.6%
National avg: 11.1% — highest margin payer
Medicaid
59.8%
National avg: 55.1% — reimburses ~82¢ per dollar of cost
Private Pay
31.6%
National avg: 33.7% — highest per-diem revenue
Private Pay % by County
A facility’s payer mix is the strongest public signal of its financial health. Higher private pay and Medicare concentrations indicate stronger revenue capacity for staffing investments and contract rates. Sample State’s payer mix is broadly in line with national averages. Revenue composition varies significantly by county — see the chart above for county-level detail.
4 Staffing Stability Overview
Proprietary composite scoring across 14.5M daily staffing records
81.3
Avg Stability Score
1.0
Avg Zero-RN Days/Qtr
531
Low Staffing Rating
36
Special Focus Facilities
County Non-Compliance Rate vs Avg Violations
The Staffing Stability Score is a 0–100 composite of six weighted sub-metrics: staffing volatility (25%), weekend drop-off (20%), zero-RN days (20%), coverage gap (15%), contract dependency (10%), and turnover velocity (10%). Higher scores indicate more stable, reliable staffing patterns.
5 Contract Dependency Analysis
Agency staffing utilization across Sample State facilities
2.1%
Avg Contract Staffing
5
High/Critical Dependency
1,177
Total Facilities
4.9
Avg Violations (12mo)
Contract Staffing % by County
Contract dependency measures the percentage of total nursing hours provided by agency/contract staff vs permanent employees. Higher dependency indicates either chronic recruitment challenges or seasonal surge patterns. For staffing agencies: counties with high contract utilization represent established markets. Counties with low contract utilization but high non-compliance represent untapped opportunity. Sample State has low contract utilization at 2.1%. Combined with 53.4% non-compliance, this represents an untapped market — facilities need staff but haven’t yet turned to agency solutions at scale.
6 County Market Rankings
All counties with 3+ facilities, ranked by facility count
CountyFacBedsAvg RatingMedicaid PrivateStability%NCContractAvg ViolIJ (3yr)
County 19711,672 2.857.3%33.2%81.7 60.8%2.1%4.2260
County 28210,770 2.658.0%32.6%83.3 60.5%1.5%5.4179
County 3718,972 2.655.6%35.3%83.5 62.9%1.3%5.7198
County 4627,679 2.455.1%34.4%81.2 66.1%1.5%8.9118
County 5283,203 2.558.1%33.8%81.6 57.1%1.5%5.075
County 6222,772 3.073.0%21.2%84.7 72.7%0.3%4.738
County 7222,585 2.056.3%34.4%82.8 54.5%0.2%6.632
County 8222,640 3.543.4%42.9%83.9 63.6%0.4%3.916
County 9181,957 2.454.3%35.1%82.3 55.6%1.2%6.631
County 10171,985 2.952.2%36.6%82.2 52.9%1.7%3.540
County 11172,314 2.260.2%34.0%82.3 52.9%8.5%5.449
County 12161,810 2.455.3%33.4%78.1 68.8%2.2%4.449
County 13151,805 2.952.9%36.1%84.2 66.7%3.6%3.640
County 14151,512 2.960.5%30.3%81.4 33.3%3.1%4.149
County 15151,752 2.257.4%35.9%81.7 86.7%0.5%4.530
County 16141,673 3.557.9%33.1%83.2 78.6%0.7%7.117
County 17141,745 2.556.5%35.6%84.2 64.3%1.5%10.643
County 18141,745 2.961.9%30.1%82.6 71.4%0.8%7.429
County 19131,565 2.258.6%30.8%82.9 53.8%1.4%4.039
County 20131,510 2.662.2%28.8%82.7 76.9%4.9%5.828
County 21121,478 2.463.1%28.4%82.8 41.7%2.1%2.828
County 22121,673 2.956.5%31.3%81.5 45.5%3.2%4.417
County 23121,183 2.657.6%30.5%81.5 75.0%1.6%3.018
County 24111,180 2.966.6%21.7%72.8 70.0%0.6%1.35
County 25111,359 2.253.0%35.6%78.5 81.8%10.2%6.224
County 26101,279 3.162.8%28.0%81.5 70.0%0.3%1.514
County 2791,135 3.164.7%26.7%80.9 77.8%0.8%3.613
County 289986 3.045.8%45.1%76.9 55.6%5.8%2.09
County 2991,017 3.247.1%43.3%84.1 33.3%0.1%4.26
County 308976 2.164.0%28.5%79.0 87.5%0.2%6.611
7 Top 25 Staffing Opportunities
Facilities ranked by SeniorIndex Staffing Need Score (0–100)
Opportunity Map: Staffing Need vs Revenue Quality
#FacilityCityCountyBeds RatingRN HrsMedicaidPrivate StabilityContractScore
1Facility 1City 1County 4 222☆☆☆☆0.30 71.0%24.5% CRITICAL 0.0% 80
2Facility 2City 2Kerr 150☆☆☆☆0.15 55.2%40.2% NON COMPLIANT 35.9% 79
3Facility 3City 3County 12 124☆☆☆☆0.25 49.7%45.6% NON COMPLIANT 0.0% 78
4Facility 4City 2Kerr 179☆☆☆☆0.27 83.7%11.0% NON COMPLIANT 0.0% 78
5Facility 5City 4County 17 214☆☆☆☆0.16 80.8%17.6% CRITICAL 0.0% 77
6Facility 6City 5County 4 180☆☆☆☆0.28 64.2%29.2% NON COMPLIANT 3.9% 77
7Facility 7City 6Comal 154☆☆☆☆0.22 73.2%25.0% CRITICAL 11.8% 75
8Facility 8City 1County 4 237☆☆☆☆0.21 76.6%17.5% CRITICAL 0.0% 75
9Facility 9City 7County 1 169☆☆☆☆0.29 86.9%10.5% NON COMPLIANT 0.0% 75
10Facility 10City 8County 7 124☆☆☆☆0.14 55.9%26.6% NON COMPLIANT 0.0% 73
11Facility 11City 9County 1 124☆☆☆☆0.27 60.0%32.7% NON COMPLIANT 2.8% 73
12Facility 12City 10County 10 172☆☆☆☆0.32 75.8%12.4% NON COMPLIANT 0.0% 73
13Facility 13City 11County 11 186☆☆☆☆0.33 60.5%35.4% NON COMPLIANT 0.0% 73
14Facility 14City 7County 1 148☆☆☆☆0.19 82.1%15.1% NON COMPLIANT 0.0% 72
15Facility 15City 4County 17 148☆☆☆☆0.23 81.6%14.6% NON COMPLIANT 0.0% 72
16Facility 16County 2County 2 184☆☆☆☆0.27 86.2%11.5% NON COMPLIANT 0.0% 71
17Facility 17City 13County 26 152☆☆☆☆0.19 87.4%8.0% CRITICAL 0.0% 71
18Facility 18City 14County 4 119☆☆☆☆0.09 73.0%20.1% CRITICAL 1.2% 71
19Facility 19City 1County 4 120☆☆☆☆0.18 76.0%18.5% CRITICAL 0.0% 71
20Facility 20City 15County 6 147☆☆☆☆0.12 83.2%7.1% NON COMPLIANT 0.0% 70
21Facility 21City 16City 16 68☆☆☆☆N/A 52.6%41.9% NON COMPLIANT 0.0% 67
22Facility 22City 1County 4 106☆☆☆☆0.31 67.1%22.9% NON COMPLIANT 0.0% 66
23Facility 23City 1County 4 106☆☆☆☆0.35 59.4%31.2% NON COMPLIANT 12.6% 64
24Facility 24City 17County 26 155☆☆☆☆0.31 71.3%23.8% NON COMPLIANT 2.6% 64
25Facility 25City 18County 3 163☆☆☆☆0.40 59.3%34.7% NON COMPLIANT 0.0% 64
Staffing Need Score combines: Staffing Gap (30pts), Revenue Quality (25pts), Regulatory Pressure (20pts), Facility Size (15pts), and Violation Signal (10pts). Higher scores indicate facilities that both need contract staff and have the revenue to pay for them.
8 Violation Hotspots
Regulatory pressure by county • Average violations per facility (12 months)
Average Violations per Facility by County
4.9
State Avg Violations (12mo)
2,213
Immediate Jeopardy (3yr)
36
Special Focus Facilities
Violation data is sourced from CMS health inspection records. Immediate jeopardy citations represent the most severe category — conditions that cause or are likely to cause serious injury, harm, impairment, or death. Counties with high violation rates and high non-compliance represent markets under intense regulatory scrutiny, creating urgency-driven demand for contract staffing.
9 Penalty Intelligence
Enforcement actions, fines, and regulatory trends
$62,998,865
Total Fines (3yr)
2,089
Penalty Actions
176
Payment Denials
827
Facilities Penalized
Penalty Fines by Year
Average fine amount: $32,932. 827 out of 1,177 facilities (70.3%%) have received at least one penalty action in the past three years. Higher enforcement intensity signals markets where facilities face operational pressure and may urgently need staffing support.
10 Quality Benchmarks
Clinical outcome measures • State vs national comparison
Long-Stay Quality Measures: State vs National Average
Quality measures are derived from the Minimum Data Set (MDS) assessments and Medicare claims data. Lower values indicate better outcomes for adverse measures (falls, pressure ulcers, antipsychotic use). Facilities with poor quality scores face higher regulatory scrutiny and are more likely to need supplemental staffing to improve outcomes to meet industry staffing benchmarks.
11 Ownership Landscape
Chain operators, ownership composition, and market consolidation
81.6%%
Chain-Affiliated Facilities
10
Chain Operators Active
217
Independent Facilities
Chain OperatorState FacilitiesTotal NationwideAvg Rating
Chain Operator 11491492.7 ★
Chain Operator 290902.3 ★
Chain Operator 3843293.2 ★
Chain Operator 467672.8 ★
Chain Operator 537383.1 ★
Chain Operator 631333.2 ★
Chain Operator 730303.2 ★
Chain Operator 828282.8 ★
Chain Operator 927522.3 ★
Chain Operator 1026692.4 ★
Ownership Type Distribution
12 Financial Health
CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Form 2540-10) — State Aggregate
$9,214,082
Avg Facility Revenue
-12.9%
Avg Operating Margin
$1,218,649
Avg Revenue / Patient Day
$1,054,226
Avg Cost / Patient Day
60.6%
Unprofitable Facilities
633
Operating at a Loss
1,044
Facilities with Financial Data
Financial data derived from CMS HCRIS cost reports (Form 2540-10). Margin = (revenue - expenses) / revenue. Facilities with incomplete filings excluded. National avg operating margin: -9.1% (FY2024).
Source: CMS Cost Report Filings (HCRIS, Form 2540-10)
13 Methodology & Data Sources
Report ID: SMR-XX-202604 • Generated April 25, 2026
This report is generated from the SeniorIndex database, which aggregates multiple federal and state data sources into a unified intelligence platform. Primary data sources include CMS Provider Data Catalog (facility profiles, star ratings, quality measures), CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily nurse staffing files (14.5 million records across 11 quarters), CMS HCRIS cost report data (facility-level payer mix), and CMS health inspection and enforcement records (419,452 deficiencies).
Staffing Stability Score (0–100): Weighted composite of six sub-metrics — Staffing Volatility (25%), Weekend Drop-Off (20%), Zero-RN Days (20%), Coverage Gap (15%), Contract Dependency (10%), Turnover Velocity (10%). Each normalized to 0–100 scale.
Staffing Assessment: COMPLIANT = meets all 3 industry benchmarks (3.48 total HPRD, 0.55 RN HPRD, zero zero-RN days). AT_RISK = meets 2 of 3. NON_COMPLIANT = meets 0–1 with no positive trend. CRITICAL = fails all 3 or 10+ zero-RN days.
Staffing Need Score (0–100): Staffing Gap (30pts) + Revenue Quality (25pts) + Regulatory Pressure (20pts) + Facility Size (15pts) + Violation Signal (10pts).
Limitations: PBJ data reflects paid hours only. Contract percentages are derived from aggregate data. Payer mix is based on most recent available cost report filing. The Staffing Stability Score and Staffing Need Score are proprietary analytical products and do not represent CMS endorsements or regulatory determinations. Compliance projections are estimates and should not be construed as legal advice.
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Market Intelligence for Senior Care  |  State Market Intelligence Report  |  Sample State  |  April 25, 2026
All data sourced from CMS public data releases. Not affiliated with CMS or HHS.
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